Winter associations predict social and extra-pair mating patterns in a wild songbird

Despite decades of research, our understanding of the underlying causes of within-population variation in patterns of extra-pair paternity (EPP) remains limited. Previous studies have shown that extra-pair mating decisions are linked to both individual traits and ecological factors. Here, we examine whether social associations among individuals prior to breeding also shape mating patterns, specifically the occurrence of EPP, in a small songbird, the blue tit. We test whether associations during the non-breeding period predict (1) future social pairs, (2) breeding proximity, i.e. the distance between breeding individuals, and (3) the likelihood that individuals have extra-pair young together. Individuals that were more strongly associated (those that foraged more often together) during winter tended to nest closer together. This, by itself, predicts EPP patterns, because most extra-pair sires are close neighbours. However, even after controlling for spatial effects, female-male dyads wit...