KAPSARC Vehicle Fleet Model: Cost of Electrification

About the ProjectAfter decades of development and false starts, electric vehicles have now become commercial. However, they still rely on strong policy support for their further development and adoption.The project assesses the effectiveness of current electric vehicle policy in leading the technology toward self sustained market competitiveness. The multi-method approach chosen involves techno-economic, strategy and innovation systems analysis. In particular, we have developed a bottom-up electric vehicle fleet cost model in order to assess the economic implications of electric vehicle policy.SummaryThis paper discusses the model we have developed at KAPSARC for estimating the relative costs of passenger car fleets containing low-emission vehicles of different types, particularly with emphasis on electric vehicles. The main purpose of the model is to enable analysis of low-emission vehicle policy; in particular, we have so far applied it to the analysis of the cost implications of supporting different types of EVs and battery charging infrastructures. The model has been designed for simplicity, transparency and ease of use by non-expert stakeholders. As such the approach taken is inspired by metamodelling, i.e.,: we draw on the results of different existing pieces of techno-economic analysis and we bring them together in a simple modelling framework, which allows for the testing of the highlevel cost implications in a transparent way. The model has also been designed such that it can be easily updated when new evidence becomes available or adapted to analyze different vehicle and infrastructure technologies.The model calculates the Relative Cost of Ownership (RCO) of individual vehicles, selected as representative of main market segments in the passenger car fleet that is the subject of our study. For each of these vehicles, we model both its internal combustion engine (ICE) version and all main electric powertrain types, i.e.,: battery electric (BEV), range-extended electric (RE-EV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV). In the case of the electric powertrain vehicles, the user can select the desired battery size and charging infrastructure coverage. The user can then also select fleet penetration levels of each powertrain type by market segment, and the model adds up all the RCO of the individual vehicles over the whole fleet to return the incremental annual cost of passengIn addition to the total cost of the fleet, the model can also estimate fleet average CO2 emissions, both tailpipe and Well-to-Wheel, and overall infrastructure utilization levels. Analysis of vehicle cost and emissions at segment level is also possible. A quick guide on how to use the simplified version of the model, which is available online is provided at the end of the paper.

关于本项目
历经数十年的发展及诸多尝试与挫折，电动汽车如今已步入商业化阶段。然而，其进一步的发展和普及仍需强有力的政策支持。本项目旨在评估现有电动汽车政策的有效性，以引导技术向自我维持的市场竞争力发展。所选用的多方法研究途径包括技术经济、战略和创新系统分析。特别是，我们开发了一个自下而上的电动汽车车队成本模型，以评估电动汽车政策的经济影响。
概要
本文探讨了我们在KAPSARC开发的模型，用于估算不同类型低排放汽车组成的乘用车车队的相对成本，尤其是侧重于电动汽车。该模型的主要目的是促进低排放车辆政策的分析；迄今为止，我们已将其应用于支持不同类型电动汽车和电池充电基础设施的成本影响分析。该模型的设计注重简洁、透明和便于非专业人士使用。因此，所采用的方法受到了元建模的启发，即：我们借鉴了不同现有技术经济分析的结果，并将它们整合到一个简单的建模框架中，以便以透明的方式测试高层次的成本影响。此外，该模型的设计便于在新的证据出现时进行更新，或适应分析不同的车辆和基础设施技术。该模型计算单个车辆的相对拥有成本（RCO），所选车辆代表我们研究主题中的乘用车车队主要市场细分。对于这些车辆中的每一辆，我们分别建模其内燃机（ICE）版本和所有主要的电动动力系统类型，即：纯电动汽车（BEV）、增程式电动汽车（RE-EV）和插电式混合动力汽车（PHEV）。对于电动动力系统车辆，用户可以选择所需的电池尺寸和充电基础设施覆盖率。用户还可以通过市场细分选择每种动力系统的车队渗透率水平，模型会将整个车队的单个车辆RCO累加，以返回年度增量成本。除了车队的总成本外，该模型还可以估计车队的平均二氧化碳排放量，包括尾气排放和从油井到车轮的全过程排放，以及整体基础设施利用率。在细分市场层面分析车辆成本和排放也是可行的。论文末尾提供了一个如何使用简化版模型的快速指南，该模型可在网上获取。