Popularity Prediction in Anime with Deep Learning (with dataset)

In the japanese anime industry, predicting whether an upcoming product will be popular is crucial. This paper introduces one of the most comprehensive free datasets for predicting anime popularity using only features accessible before huge investments, relying solely on freely available internet data and adhering to rigorous standards based on real-life experiences. To explore this dataset and its potential, a deep neural network architecture incorporating GPT-2 and ResNet-50 is proposed. The model achieved a best mean squared error (MSE) of 0.011, significantly surpassing a benchmark with traditional methods of 0.412, and a best root-square (R2) score of 0.187, outperforming the benchmark of −30.795. The aim of this study is to explore the scope and impact of features available before huge investments in relation to anime popularity. For that reason, and complementing the MSE and R2 metrics, Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients are used. The best results, with Pearson at 0.436 and Spearman at 0.431, along with a well-fitted learning curves, suggests that while these features are relevant, they are not decisive for determining anime popularity and they likely interacts with additional features accessible after further investments. This is one of the first multimodal approaches to address this kind of tasks, aiming to support an entertainment industry by helping to avoid financial failures and guide successful production strategies.