Operationalizing climate risk in a global warming hotspot

Climate change is a looming threat to marine life, creating an urgent need to develop climate-informed
conservation strategies. The Climate Risk Index for Biodiversity was designed to assess the climate
risk for marine species in a manner that supports decision-making. Yet, its regional application
remains to be explored. Here, we use it to evaluate climate risk for ~2000 species in the northwest
Atlantic Ocean, a marine warming hotspot, to explore its capacity to inform climate-considered
fisheries management. Under high emissions, harvested species, especially those with the highest
economic value, have a disproportionate risk of projected exposure to hazardous climate conditions
but benefit the most from emission mitigation. By mapping critical risk areas for 90 fish stocks, we
pinpoint locations likely to require additional intervention, such as in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence
for Atlantic cod. Finally, we demonstrate how evaluating climate risk geographically and
understanding how it arises can support short- and long-term fisheries management and conservation
objectives under climate change.