Historical dynamics of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in Amazonia

The Amazon forest is known for its astonishing amphibian diversity, yet the potential distribution and underlying impacts of the most important amphibian pathogen is unknown for most of Amazonia. In this retrospective survey of preserved Leptodactylus frogs, collected over a 119 yr period, we used quantitative PCR to detect the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) and performed spatial scan analyses to identify spatiotemporal clusters of Bd. We also quantified the potential effect of environmental factors on the likelihood of Bd occurrence and generated an updated suitability map for Bd in the Amazon that included our retrospective sampling. We detected Bd in lowland Amazon as early as 1935, in the state of Pará, Brazil, and we found low prevalence (∼ 3.8%) over time. We identified two statistically significant spatiotemporal clusters of Bd: a recent and narrow cluster in the Amazon River delta and a spatiotemporally broad cluster in the southern edge of Amazon and Brazil...