HEFS Data for Lake Erie HAB Scenarios

Forecasts of Maumee River flow (at Waterville, OH) generated using the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting System (HEFS). Each CSV file is labeled with the date of HEFS run, WTVO1 (which is the NWS ID for the Maumee River at Waterville, OH), the exceedance trace from the model output (05 is 5%, 50 is 50%, which is also the median, etc.), followed by "HEFS". Example: 240501_WTVO1_95_HEFS.csv is a CSV file containing the 95% exceedance trace flow forecast for the Maumee River at Waterville, OH using the HEFS model run from May 1, 2024).These data were used for the work shown in the "Using HEFS to forecast bloom scenario" section of the article "A Pilot Study Predicting Lake Erie Cyanobacterial Bloom Severity Using the National Weather Service Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting Service"