A Potential Case of Social Bankruptcy: States' AFDC Payments and Their Teen Birthrates

These findings were based on a pooled time series analysis that covers a 30-year period at five different time-points: 1960, 1970, 1980, 1985, and 1990. This research examines the relationship between states' Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) payments and teen birthrates. Drawing on rational choice theories, the investigators expected the effects of states' AFDC payments on their teen birthrates to be positive, taking unemployment rates, racial composition, and poverty rates into account. The effects of states' AFDC payments were significant in a negative direction in Model 1, a random effects model. They also were significant in a negative direction in Model 2 when the effects of year were controlled for. However, when the effects of year and state in Model 3 were controlled for, they were not significant. The findings do not support assumptions regarding the incentive effects of welfare that underlie rational choice theories in states where teen birthrates are higher. If anything, teen birthrates are higher in states where AFDC payments are lower. Implications for policy and further research are discussed in relation to the positive effects of states' poverty and population change rates on the state teen birthrate problem.