Vibrio vulnificus infections from water exposure in the Chesapeake Bay: Are they predictable? Ecological Modelling

Vibrio vulnificus is a naturally occurring pathogenic marine bacterium that is found in coastal waters. Infections from V. vulnificus infections can occur from wound exposure to contaminated water as well as consuming raw or undercooked seafood. Despite low case numbers of 50–60 per year in the United States, V. vulnificus is commonly found in brackish water like in Chesapeake Bay. Predictive models have been developed to predict occurrence of V. vulnificus based on temperature and salinity, two known drivers of V. vulnificus abundance. Though these models can predict the abundance of bacteria, they do not predict the likelihood of infection due to the lack of understanding surrounding virulence. Also, the individual health status of the person exposed is an important predictor of illness but is not typically available for research purposes. This work utilizes V. vulnificus case numbers from the Virginia Department of Health coupled with model predictions from an operational habitat suitability model that would predict the number of infections. The results indicate a relationship between per capita wound infection cases and the probability of the pathogen being present in tidal waters of the Chesapeake Bay (VA).