Effects of Climate Change on Global Food Production from SRES Emissions and Socioeconomic Scenarios

The Effects of Climate Change on Global Food Production from SRES Emissions and Socioeconomic Scenarios is an update to a major crop modeling study by the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS). The initial study was published in 1997, based on output of HadCM2 model forced with greenhouse gas concentration from the IS95 emission scenarios in 1997. Results of the initial study are presented at SEDAC's Potential Impacts of Climate Change on World Food Supply: Data Sets from a Major Crop Modeling Study, released in 2001. The co-authors developed and tested a method for investigating the spatial implications of climate change on crop production. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) dynamic process crop growth models, are specified and validated for one hundred and twenty seven sites in the major world agricultural regions. Results from the crop models, calibrated and validated in the major crop-growing regions, are then used to test functional forms describing the response of yield changes in the climate and environmental conditions. This updated version is based on HadCM3 model output along with GHG concentrations from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). The crop yield estimates incorporate some major improvements: 1) consistent crop simulation methodology and climate change scenarios; 2) weighting of model site results by contribution to regional and national, and rainfed and irrigated production; 3) quantitative foundation for estimation of physiological CO2 effects on crop yields; 4) Adaptation is explicitly considered; and 5) results are reported by country rather than by Basic Linked System region. The data are produced by A. Iglesias and C. Rosenzweig and the maps are produced by the Columbia University Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN).

《基于SRES排放情景与经济社会情景的气候变化对全球粮食生产的影响》系美国宇航局戈达德太空研究所（GISS）一项关于主要作物模型研究的重要更新。该研究初版于1997年发表，基于1997年IS95排放情景中的温室气体浓度，并驱动HadCM2模型。该研究的初步成果于2001年在SEDAC发布的《气候变化对世界粮食供应潜在影响的可能数据集：一项主要作物模型研究》中呈现。合作作者开发并测试了一种探讨气候变化对作物生产空间影响的方法。针对主要世界农业区域的127个地点，特指定并验证了DSSAT动态过程作物生长模型。在主要作物种植区校准和验证后的作物模型结果，随后被用于检验描述气候变化和环境条件下产量变化的函数形式。此次更新版基于HadCM3模型输出以及来自《排放情景特别报告》（SRES）的温室气体浓度。作物产量估算纳入了一些重大改进：1）一致的作物模拟方法和气候变化情景；2）通过贡献到区域和国家、以及雨养和灌溉生产来对模型站点结果进行加权；3）为生理CO2对作物产量影响的估算提供量化基础；4）明确考虑了适应性；5）结果按国家而非基本链接系统区域报告。数据由A.伊格莱西亚斯和C.罗森兹维格制作，地图由哥伦比亚大学国际地球科学信息网络中心（CIESIN）制作。