Data from: Phylogeography in continuous space: coupling species distribution models and circuit theory to assess the effect of contiguous migration at different climatic periods on genetic differentiation in Busseola fusca (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae)

Current population genetic models fail to cope with genetic
differentiation for species with large, contiguous and heterogeneous
distribution. We show that in such a case, genetic differentiation can be
predicted at equilibrium by circuit theory, where conductance corresponds
to abundance in species distribution models (SDM). Circuit-SDM approach
was used for the phylogeographic study of the lepidopteran cereal
stemborer Busseola fusca Füller (Noctuidae) across sub-Saharan Africa.
Species abundance was surveyed across its distribution range. SDM models
were optimized and selected by cross validation. Relationship between
observed matrices of genetic differentiation between individuals, and
matrices of resistance distance was assessed through Mantel tests and
redundancy discriminant analyses (RDA). A total of 628 individuals from
130 localities in 17 countries were genotyped at 7 microsatellite loci.
Six population clusters were found based on a Bayesian analysis. The
eastern margin of Dahomey Gap between East and West Africa was the main
factor of genetic differentiation. The SDM projections at present, last
interglacial and last glacial maximum periods were used for estimation of
circuit resistance between locations of genotyped individuals. For all
periods of time, when using either all individuals or only East-African
individuals, partial Mantel r and RDA analyses conditioning on geographic
distance were found significant. Under future projections (year 2080),
partial r and RDA significance were different. From this study, it is
concluded that analytical solutions provided by circuit theory are useful
for the evolutionary management of populations and for phylogeographic
analysis when coalescence times are not accessible by approximate Bayesian
simulations.