Criminalization of Corporate and Managerial Decisions in Politico-Economic Conflicts: Risk Assessment for Rule of Law and Investment Climate in Latin America

This independent analytical report examines structural risks associated with the criminalization of corporate and managerial decisions within politico-economic conflicts across Latin America and evaluates their impact on rule-of-law stability, investment climate predictability, and financial system resilience. While criminal enforcement of economic offenses remains an essential component of regulatory and judicial systems, the report analyzes recurring scenarios in which corporate disputes, regulatory conflicts, or shifts in political and economic context are transferred into the criminal-law domain, generating disproportionate economic and reputational consequences for companies, executives, and investors. Particular attention is given to procedural disproportions, early-stage investigative measures, and the cascading effects of criminal proceedings on banking access, market positioning, cross-border transactions, and capital mobility. The study explores secondary systemic effects including defensive compliance by financial institutions, de-banking, increased cost of capital, and long-term erosion of investor confidence. It further assesses the transnational amplification of domestic criminal proceedings through international compliance systems and cross-border risk assessment frameworks. The report provides a structured typology of criminalization patterns, identifies early warning indicators through a Rule-of-Law Stress Test model, and outlines a package of safeguards aimed at prosecutors, courts, financial regulators, and development institutions. It also proposes a framework for regional dialogue and analytical engagement within the Organization of American States (OAS). Prepared by ARGA Observatory, this report is intended for policymakers, regulators, financial institutions, development banks, legal practitioners, and academic researchers engaged in rule-of-law governance, investment risk assessment, and institutional resilience in Latin America.