The Super-Predator Effect: How Negative Targeted Messages Demobilize Black Voter

This paper assesses whether messages which are framed to denigrate a politician or political entity in the eyes of a particular group, something we label as negative targeted messages, decreases Blacks’ enthusiasm to vote. We also explore why such messages are effective in demobilizing Black voters. Using a survey experiment implemented on a nationally representative sample, we find that Blacks are less enthusiastic about voting when presented with evidence of racism within their preferred political party. Whites and Latinxs do not respond similarly to the same stimulus. We also demonstrate evidence that the effectiveness of negative targeted messages towards Blacks is driven by our treatment’s ability to alter perceptions of party empathy. Overall, our results suggest that targeted negative messages can be effective in depressing Black turnout. However, parties may be able to counter this negative messaging with evidence of outreach to minority communities to demonstrate a greater sense of empathy.