Building a dynamic systems model to explore the potential road safety benefits of Conditional, High and Full Driving Automation in light vehicles in Victoria

A Dynamic Systems model was developed to explore the road safety benefits of adopting higher level automated vehicles in light vehicles in Victoria, Australia to 2050. The model projected fleet take-up and estimated reductions in fatalities and serious injuries based on a range of scenarios. The model predicted a total of almost 3800 casualties prevented, with 638 saved annually by 2050. The other scenarios indicated a wide range of potential savings, demonstrating the importance of early take-up and the optimisation of the road infrastructure. The model established its ability as a flexible framework for researchers to build on in future.