Analysis of the Impact of Digital Economy on Agricultural Carbon Emission Reduction

Under the dual strategic imperatives of achieving the “carbon peak and carbon neutrality” targets and implementing comprehensive digital transformation, an in-depth exploration into how the digital economy empowers agricultural carbon emission reduction is conducted, and its specific operational pathways are clarified. Such investigation is recognized as holding substantial importance for advancing digital transition in the agricultural sector and promoting development along a low-carbon trajectory. This study focuses on the eighteen cities of Henan Province as analytical units and adopts a comprehensive theoretical framework that integrates direct effects, mediating transmission, and threshold conditions. Methodologically, an integrated approach combining fixed effects models, mediation models, and threshold regression models is employed to empirically investigate the mechanisms and the distinct phased characteristics through which agricultural carbon reduction is influenced by the digital economy. The key findings are summarized as follows: ① Agricultural carbon emission intensity in Henan Province is observed to exhibit a consistent and statistically significant declining trajectory from 2011 to 2023. Moreover, a comparative assessment reveals that the magnitude of reduction during the second phase (2017-2023) is found to be substantially more pronounced than that observed during the first phase (2011-2016). ② A significant and statistically robust inhibitory effect on agricultural carbon emission intensity is demonstrated by the development of the digital economy. However, the strength of this direct suppressive influence is determined to be more potent in the initial phase relative to the subsequent phase. ③ Mechanism analysis reveals that the carbon reduction effect exerted by the digital economy demonstrates distinct evolutionary characteristics in its transmission pathways. During the first phase, the digital economy primarily achieves emission reductions through direct effects. In contrast, during the second phase, the level of urbanization emerges as a significant partial mediator in the process through which the digital economy promotes agricultural carbon reduction, with this indirect pathway accounting for approximately 41.85% of the total observed impact. ④ Threshold effect analysis provides further nuanced insights. No statistically significant threshold characteristic is exhibited by agricultural economic development level in the first phase. In the second phase, however, a significant double threshold effect is identified. This result indicates that the carbon reduction efficacy of the digital technologies becomes contingent upon reaching a critical level of agricultural economic maturity. When agricultural economic development level surpasses the threshold of 11 280 yuan per person, the carbon mitigation potential of the digital economy is fully activated and subsequently exhibits a self-reinforcing, progressively strengthening pattern with further economic advancement. By clarifying the dynamic mechanisms through which the digital economy influences agricultural carbon reduction and identifying the critical stage-specific constraints governing this relationship, this study contributes to a deeper theoretical understanding of the interconnection between digital economic development and agricultural decarbonization. Furthermore, the findings provide a solid empirical foundation and serve as actionable, evidence-informed references for formulating differentiated policy frameworks and strategic measures aimed at effectively promoting low-carbon development in the agricultural sector.