AICM estimates for the fit of different models with reduced number of transitions.

aThe names of the 11 models (Flyway model and Ran1-10) in the comparison test: Model1 is the non-reversible BSSVS model without between flyway transitions (Flyway); Ran1-10 are models in which the same number of transitions has been switched off, chosen at random (Ran1-10).bThe estimated AICM score of the posterior: lower values of marginal likelihood indicate a better fit to the data. The model with the best performance is indicated in bold.cThe standard error of AICM estimated using 1000 bootstrap replicates.dDifferences of models are shown in the matrix being composed by column 4 to 13. In each row of the matrix, the positive value in a cell represented the support for one model (in column 1) over the other (the column title). A difference of AICM = 10 is considered a strong preference for one model over another.AICM estimates for the fit of different models with reduced number of transitions.