Unveiling the Ecological Drivers of Bat-Borne Viral Epidemics: A Climate-Driven Risk Assessment

Bats serve as natural reservoirs for numerous lethal viruses, significantly threatening global public health. Despite the substantial rise in identified bat-hosted viruses, our understanding of their ecological dynamics remains limited, hindering the development of effective preventive strategies for bat-borne viral diseases. We analyzed virus-host associations in 1,350 bat species within a One Health framework to identify how ecological, evolutionary, and socioeconomic factors shape global hotspots of bat-borne viruses. By examining 17 host, environmental, and socioeconomic variables, we found that while socioeconomic factors strongly influence observed viral patterns by driving research effort, the underlying richness of bat-borne viruses, including potentially human-infectious and epidemic viruses (PIVs and PEVs), was primarily driven by temperature seasonality and dietary strategy (phytophagy). Socioeconomic factors, especially human population density, further amplify viral detection and spillover risk. Mapping hotspot regions revealed that PEV-carrying bats clustered in both tropical seasonal forests and densely populated temperate zones. Projections to 2050 showed that climate and land-use change would expand zones of potential human-PEV bat contact inlandward by approximately 13%. Together, these findings highlight the need for integrated, One Health-based surveillance and intervention strategies targeting dynamic risk hotspots in a rapidly changing world.