Region-scale decline in streamflow across New South Wales catchments

Changing climate and its interactions with catchments may result in changes to water resources. This study examines the temporal trends in streamflow across New South Wales, Australia. Across 105 catchments with over 35 years of records up to September 2020, we used Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope methods to estimate trends in different flow indicators, including the annual, low and high flows, cease to flow, and the rainfall-–runoff relationship. Nearly all (104) catchments have decreasing trends in annual flow, with 32 of these being statistically significant, indicating an overall drying pattern. Most declines are 10–20% per decade relative to the mean annual flows of individual catchments. Trends in rainfall-–runoff relationship suggest that the flow declines are generally greater than expected with given rainfall, and likely due to region-scale processes such as groundwater and vegetation dynamics. Our finding has important implications for future water security for New South Wales and similar environments, such as planning for future reduction in water resources availability with likely increasing demands.