Community science reveals links between migration arrival timing advance, migration distance, and wing shape

Substantial global data show that many taxa are shifting their phenologies in response to climate change. For birds, migration arrival dates in breeding regions have been shifting earlier, and there is evidence that both evolutionary adaptation and behavioural flexibility influence these shifts. As more efficient flyers may be able to demonstrate more flexibility to respond to changing conditions during migratory flight, we hypothesize that differences among passerine species in flight efficiency, as reflected by morphology, may be associated with the magnitude of shifts in arrival date in response to climate warming. We applied a logistic model to eighteen years of eBird data to estimate mean arrival date for 44 common passerines migrating to northeast North America. We then used linear mixed-effects models to estimate changes in mean arrival date and compared these changes to morphological proxies for flight efficiency and migratory distance using phylogenetic generalized least square...