Data from: The evolution of bet hedging in response to local ecological conditions

Genotypes that hedge their bets can be favored by selection in an
unpredictably varying environment. Bet hedging can be achieved by
systematically expressing several phenotypes, such as one that readily
attempts to reproduce and one that procrastinates in a dormant stage. But
how much of each phenotype should a genotype express? Theory predicts that
evolving bet-hedging strategies depend on local environmental variation,
on how the population is regulated, and on exchanges with neighboring
populations. Empirically, however, it remains unknown whether bet hedging
can evolve to cope with the ecological conditions experienced by
populations. Here we study the evolution of bet-hedging dormancy
frequencies in two neighboring populations of the chestnut weevil,
Curculio elephas. We estimate the temporal distribution of demographic
parameters together with the form of the relationship between fecundity
and population density and use both to parameterize models that predict
the bet-hedging dormancy frequency expected to evolve in each population.
Strikingly, the observed dormancy frequencies closely match predictions in
their respective localities. We also found that dormancy frequencies vary
randomly across generations, likely due to environmental perturbations of
the underlying physiological mechanism. Using a model that includes these
constraints, we predict the whole distribution of dormancy frequencies
whose mean and shape agree with our observed data. Overall, our results
suggest that dormancy frequencies have evolved according to local
ecological conditions and physiological constraints.