Performance of Numerical Guidance in Predicting Storm Related Precipitation

In a Technical Attachment to last week's Staff Notes (December 9, 1974), we discussed the use of the LFM progs in predicting the winds accompanying the December 1-3, 1974 storm that buffeted the northeast coast of the U. S., The claim was also made that the detailed specific output from numerical models can be used to make weather forecasts that depart from the classical models. In this technical attachment we will evaluate the 6-hourly PE output (FOUS) and the MOS PoP guidance for this same storm.