Opuntia ficus-indica (L.) Mill. and Climate Change: An Analysis in the Light of Modeling Potential Distribution of Species in the Caatinga Biome

Abstract The predictions of climate change in the Caatinga biome for this century are for an increase in air temperature and a reduction in rainfall. The combination of this physical phenomenon with biological invasions can increase losses of local biodiversity. The objective of the study was to model the potential distribution of Opuntia ficus-indica (L.) Mill., an invasive cactus in the Caatinga biome in future climatic scenarios and to evaluate its space-time dynamics for the purpose of conservation of the biome. For this purpose, the MaxEnt algorithm was used, data on the presence of the target species and 10 environmental variables. In addition, the future time intervals 2041-2060 and 2061-2080, current 1961-1990 and the scenarios RCP4.5 and 8.5 of CMIP5 were considered. With bioclimatic modeling and climate changes included, it was possible to point to two future effects on the current areas suitable for the presence of the invasive target species. The first, there would be a gradual expansion of these areas until 2070 in RCP4.5 or until 2050 in RCP8.5. In the second, from 2070 on RCP8.5 there would be contraction until the end of the century. The expansion of the invasive target species could be managed as long as, observed the human component that facilitates the introduction of the plant in the biome and the concept of socioeconomic and environmental sustainability, for example, growing it under conditions of isolation for forage purposes.