Reduction in meridional heat export contributes to recent Indian Ocean warming

Since 2000, the Indian Ocean has warmed more rapidly than the Atlantic or Pacific. Air-sea fluxes alone cannot explain the rapid Indian Ocean warming, which has so far been linked to an increase in temperature transport into the basin through the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF). Here, we investigate the role that the heat transport out of the basin at 36◦S plays in the warming. Adding the heat transport out of the basin to the ITF temperature transport into the basin, we calculate the decadal mean Indian Ocean heat budget over the 2010s. We find that heat convergence increased within the Indian Ocean over 2000-2019. The heat convergence over the 2010s is the same order as the warming rate, and thus the net air-sea fluxes are near zero. This is a significant change from previous analyses using trans-basin hydrographic sections from 1987, 2002, and 2009, which all found divergences of heat. A two year time series shows that seasonal aliasing is not responsible for the decadal change. The anomalous ocean heat convergence over the 2010s compared to previous estimates is due to changes in ocean currents at both the southern boundary (33%) and the ITF (67%). We hypothesize that the changes at the southern boundary are linked to an observed broadening of the Agulhas Current, implying that temperature and velocity data at the western boundary are crucial to constrain heat budget changes.