Mesoscale air motion and thermodynamics predict heavy hourly U.S. precipitation

Predicting heavy precipitation remains scientifically challenging. Here we combine Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) temperature and moisture soundings and weather forecast winds to predict the formation of thermodynamic conditions favourable for convection in the hours following a satellite overpass. We treat AIRS retrievals as air parcels that are moved adiabatically to generate time-varying fields. Over much of the Central-Eastern Continental U.S. during the non-winter months of 2019—2020, our derived convective available potential energy (CAPE) is strongly predictive of intense precipitation. For hourly precipitation above the 99.9th percentile, performance is marginally lower than forecasts from a convection permitting model, but similar to the ERA5 reanalysis and substantially better than using the original AIRS soundings. Our results illustrate how mesoscale advection is a major contributor to the development of heavy precipitation in our region. Long-term satellite sounder records that employ trajectory enhancement could be a novel approach to quantify trends in climate-related risks from heavy precipitation.