Source code and derived simulation outputs for assessing the potential northern range limit of Conotrachelus nenuphar in Europe under current and future climate

This release provides the source code and derived simulation outputs from a stochastic phenological model assessing the potential northern range limit of Conotrachelus nenuphar in Europe under current and future climate. The corresponding study is available here: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-10042133/v1. The analyses were carried out in R (R Core Team 2024) using the packages ‘dplyr’ (Wickham et al. 2023), ‘fitdistrplus’ (Delignette-Muller and Dutang 2015), ‘rnaturalearth’ (Massicotte and South 2026), ‘rnaturalearthdata’ (South et al. 2024), ‘terra’ (Hijmans 2025) and ‘truncnorm’ (Mersmann et al. 2023). This release includes scrips for: 1. fitting probability distributions for the life cycle steps of the northern strain of C. nenuphar on sour cherry and sampling stochastic values for the simulations;2. preprocessing ERA5 climate data for the simulations;3. preprocessing CMIP6 climate data for the simulations;4. running the stochastic phenological model using preprocessed ERA5 data; and5. running the stochastic phenological model using preprocessed CMIP6 data. The scripts document the modelling workflow used to generate the derived outputs. Full reproduction of the analyses requires access to the original third-party input datasets, which are not redistributed in this release. ERA5 (Hersbach et al. 2023) and CMIP6 (Eyring et al. 2016; O’Neill et al. 2016; Meinshausen et al. 2020) climate data used in the study were obtained from the Climate Data Store (CDS) of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) (Copernicus Climate Change Service 2021; 2024). CMIP6 model output is also available through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF). PEP725 phenological observations are available from the Pan European Phenological Database (Templ et al. 2018). This release includes derived data files linked to the modelling scripts. The file “Data_500ite_forSIM.csv” contains the 500 stochastic values used in the published simulations allowing reproduction of the model runs reported in the study. The file “BBCH_DD_1986_2015_sourcherry.csv” contains only derived accumulated growing degree day values calculated from PEP725 sour cherry petal fall observations and ERA5 daily mean air temperature. This file does not include original PEP725 observation records, observation dates, station identifiers, coordinates or other station-level metadata. Original PEP725 data are not redistributed. The release also provides result files for the two main model outputs used in the study: mean life cycle completion proportion, calculated as the average proportion of stochastic iterations in which the full annual life cycle was completed across the analysis period; and proportion of successful years, calculated as the proportion of years in which at least one stochastic iteration completed the full annual life cycle. Results are provided for: the native-range evaluation area in the United States and Canada for 1940–1959; northern and central Europe under current climate conditions for 2006–2025; and northern and central Europe under future climate projections for 2041–2060 under SSP2-4.5 This release corresponds to the submitted preprint version of the study. If scripts or derived result files are updated during peer review, a new version of this Zenodo record will be released. Licensing: The R scripts/source code included in this release are licensed under the GNU General Public License v3.0 or later. The derived data files and simulation result files are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0). The study contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026. Neither the European Commission nor ECMWF is responsible for any use that may be made of the Copernicus information or data it contains.