Risk Analysis Research Paper.docx

A method is proposed for estimating the risks, safety, reliability and vulnerabiity associated with the operation of complex systems. The method represents a novel approach where graph-theoretic models used in an analysis rest on a hierarchical network of Modules, each module a model of some subsystem. It provides a complete framework for resolving all statistical dependencies and probabilistic uncertainties.In a short series of steps, the method measures the costs, elapsed times, vulnerability scores, and the overall risk, reliability and safety as a threat - or multiple threats - progress through the hierarchy.This stand-alone method is efficient and economical, consisting of at most 100 network vertices, and requiring an insignificant amount of computation time.Four support files needed to collect all the user data and to execute the method have been included with the paper, together with their Document Object Identifier (DOI) for downloading..A detailed user manual has been appended to this research document to assist and guide a user during the application of the method.