Data from: Macroecological predictors of evolutionary and plastic potential do not apply at microgeographic scales for a freshwater Cladoceran under climate change

Rapid evolutionary adaptation could reduce the negative impacts of climate
change if sufficient heritability of key traits exists under future
climate conditions. Plastic responses to climate change could also reduce
negative impacts. Understanding which populations are likely to respond
via evolution or plasticity could therefore improve estimates of
extinction risk. A large body of research suggests that the evolutionary
and plastic potential of a population can be predicted by the degree of
spatial and temporal climatic variation it experiences. However, we know
little about the scale at which these relationships apply. Here, we test
if spatial and temporal variation in temperature affect genetic variation
and plasticity of fitness and a key thermal tolerance trait (critical
thermal maximum; CTmax) at microgeographic scales using a metapopulation
of Daphnia magna. Specifically, we ask if: (1) there is microgeographic
adaptation of CTmax and fitness to differences in temperature among the
pools, (2) pools with greater temporal temperature variation have more
genetic variation or plasticity in CTmax or fitness, and (3) increases in
temperature affect the heritability of CTmax and fitness. Although we
observed genetic variation and plasticity in CTmax and fitness, and
differences in fitness among pools, we did not find support for the
predicted relationships between temperature variation and genetic
variation or plasticity. Furthermore, the genetic variation and plasticity
we observed in CTmax is unlikely sufficient to reduce the impacts of
climate change. CTmax plasticity was minimal and heritability was 72%
lower when D. magna developed at the higher temperatures predicted under
climate change. In contrast, the heritability of fitness increased by 53%
under warmer temperatures suggesting an increase in overall evolutionary
potential unrelated to CTmax under climate change. More research is needed
to understand evolutionary and plastic potential under climate change and
how that potential will be altered in future climates.