Environmental exposure of terrestrial biomes to global climate change: an n-dimensional approach

Terrestrial biomes, defined by unique climatic conditions and evolutionary histories, are increasingly vulnerable to global climate change. This study evaluates the exposure of Earth’s 14 terrestrial biomes to climate change by characterizing their climatic boundaries using n-dimensional probabilistic methods. We analyzed precipitation and temperature data from the Global 200 project, combined with bioclimatic variables and climate models, to assess changes across historical, present, and future scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). Using NicheROVER and NicheA, we quantified climatic overlap and projected non-overlapping regions under future climate scenarios. Our results reveal significant climatic specificity in temperature and precipitation ranges, with Flooded Grasslands & Savannas, Tropical & Subtropical Dry Broadleaf Forests, and Mangroves identified as the most exposed biomes. Geographic projections for 2040 highlight high-exposure regions near the equator, including the Neotropics, Central and Northern Africa, Southern Asia, Oceania, and Antarctica. These regions intersect with 2,230 and 9,091 protected areas under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. This study underscores the importance of characterizing climatic boundaries to enhance ecosystem resilience estimates and inform biodiversity conservation strategies. By integrating niche modeling approaches, we provide a framework for identifying regions most vulnerable to climate change. Our findings emphasize the need for targeted conservation efforts, policy interventions, and fine-scale analyses to mitigate climate impacts on biodiversity, agriculture, and human health. We conclude that understanding biome-specific climatic boundaries is critical for addressing the global climate crisis and guiding adaptive management in the most exposed regions.This data set contains the spatially balanced points of each of the 14 terrestrial biomes analyzed in the study.Description of the data and file structureFile structure:The files are divided into folders corresponding to each time period analyzed, including: Late_Holocene, Present, Future_ssp126, Future_ssp370, Future_ssp585In each folder are the .csv files for each biome separately, including the following information:ID: Biome identifier, POINT_X: Length, POINT_Y: Latitude, Bio_01: Values of the bio_01 variable,Bio_05: Values of the bio_05 variable, Bio_06: Values of the bio_06 variable, Bio_12: Values of the bio_12 variable, Bio_13: Values of the bio_13 variable, Bio_14: Values of the bio_14 variable.The polygons of each biome can be found at the following link:https://www.worldwildlife.org/publications/terrestrial-ecoregions-of-the-worldOlson, D. M., & Dinerstein, E. (2002). The Global 200: Priority ecoregions for global conservation. Annals of the Missouri Botanical Garden, 199-224.