Data and script repository for: Rethinking model transferability: Validity domains as a new approach to delineate the limits of bloom date projections

This repository contains all scripts, derived datasets, model parameters, and figures used in the study “Rethinking model transferability: Validity domains as a new approach to delineate the limits of bloom date projections.” The main entry point is main.R, which includes all necessary information and instructions to reproduce the analyses and figures. All code and data are provided for transparency and reproducibility. Data sources, citation, and copyright If you use this repository, please cite it using the Zenodo DOI: Bauer, J. N., Schiffers, K., Caspersen, L., Yamane, H., & Luedeling, E. (2026). Data and scripts for: Rethinking model transferability: Validity domains as a new approach to delineate the limits of bloom date projections. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18226493 Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) phenological data This study uses historical cherry blossom phenological observation data published by the **Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)**. The original data were obtained from the JMA cherry blossom phenology archive: - Overview and documentation: https://www.data.jma.go.jp/sakura/data/ Specifically, the following JMA datasets were used: - **Dataset 004 – First bloom date** https://www.data.jma.go.jp/sakura/data/pdf/004.pdf - **Dataset 005 – Full bloom date** https://www.data.jma.go.jp/sakura/data/pdf/005.pdf Data processing and modifications The original JMA data were provided in PDF format. For use in this study, the data were **converted from PDF to CSV format** to enable programmatic access and analysis. No numerical values were intentionally altered during the conversion process. All derived datasets contained in this repository are therefore **based on, but not identical to**, the original JMA publications. The Japan Meteorological Agency is **not responsible** for the modified or derived versions of the data provided here. License and terms of use The original JMA data are made available under the **Public Data License (Version 1.0)** of the Government of Japan: - License information: https://www.jma.go.jp/jma/en/copyright.html The Public Data License (Version 1.0) is **compatible with the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0) license**. Accordingly, the JMA data may be used, reproduced, and redistributed, including for commercial purposes, **provided that proper source attribution is given**. Source citation When using the original or derived JMA data, please cite the source as follows: Source:Cherry blossom phenological observation data (Japan Meteorological Agency)https://www.data.jma.go.jp/sakura/data/PDL1.0 (https://www.jma.go.jp/jma/en/copyright.html)(accessed on 2024/09/22) Original data files:- First bloom date (Dataset 004): https://www.data.jma.go.jp/sakura/data/pdf/004.pdf- Full bloom date (Dataset 005): https://www.data.jma.go.jp/sakura/data/pdf/005.pdf NOAA Global Surface Summary of the Day (GSOD) This study also uses daily meteorological data from the **Global Surface Summary of the Day (GSOD)** dataset, provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). The GSOD dataset is derived from the Integrated Surface Hourly (ISH) datasetand provides daily summaries of meteorological observations from global stations. Dataset landing page:https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-surface-summary-of-the-day Dataset identifiers:- NCEI DSI 3505 (subset)- gov.noaa.ncdc:C00516- global-summary-of-the-day Citation:NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (1999):Global Surface Summary of the Day – GSOD.NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.Accessed on 2024-09-21. License:U.S. Government work (public domain). CMIP6 climate projections (Copernicus Climate Data Store) This study also uses climate projection data from the **Coupled ModelIntercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6)**, accessed via the**Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS)** and provided by theCopernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), implemented by ECMWF. CMIP6 data were used to derive the future climate scenarios required forbloom-date projections and for assessing model transferability. The originalprojections and the generated weather data can be reproduced using theprovided code. To run the analyses and generate the figures, the filefuture_mean_temps.RDS contains all aggregated future mean temperature data. Dataset landing page:https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/datasets/projections-cmip6 Persistent identifier (DOI):https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.c866074c Citation:Copernicus Climate Change Service, Climate Data Store, (2021):CMIP6 climate projections.Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS).DOI: 10.24381/cds.c866074cAccessed on 2025-06-13. License:CMIP6 data were accessed under the Copernicus Climate Data StoreTerms of Use.