Limited source-sink connections shape south western Pacific coral reef resilience under current and future warming

This script implements a stochastic Lagrangian particle tracking model to simulate coral larval dispersal across 850 reefs in the southwestern Pacific (17–32°S, 149–168°E), encompassing the southern Great Barrier Reef, Lord Howe Island, New Caledonia, and the Coral Sea. Larval trajectories are driven by daily oceanographic current data from BRAN2020 (u, v velocity fields), with survival probabilities modulated by sea surface temperature and salinity using Gaussian penalty functions. A stochastic random walk component (factor = 0.2) is added to velocity fields to account for sub-grid turbulent diffusion. Larvae are tracked over species-specific pelagic larval durations, with settlement occurring when a larva passes within one kilometre of a reef following a pre-competency period. The model outputs daily larval trajectories and a reef-to-reef connectivity matrix quantifying successful dispersal events between source and sink reefs across the 13-year simulation period (2011–2024). , , # Coral larval connectivity data, southwestern Pacific (2011–2024) **Authors** * E. Dehont¹*, S. Choukroun², A. Grech³, K.M. Quigley⁴·⁵* ¹ Centre for Fisheries Ecosystem Research, School of Fisheries, Fisheries and Marine Institute, Memorial University, St. John's, NL, Canada\ ² Centre of Tropical Water and Aquatic Ecosystem Research, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia\ ³ College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia\ ⁴ Minderoo Foundation, Perth, Western Australia, Australia\ ⁵ James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia **Associated manuscript:** Limited source-sink connections shape south western Pacific coral reef resilience under current and future warming — *Journal of Applied Ecology*\ **DOI:** to be added upon publication ## Dataset description This dataset contains the R code and reef classification data used to simulate coral larval dispersal across 850 reefs in the southwest..., ,