MGB-IPH files for Paraíba do Sul River Basin

The Paraíba do Sul basin region was the target of significant flood events, which resulted in significant damage. For the future, there is a projection of a greater occurrence of events associated with flooding, floods and floods in the basin due to the increase in intensity and frequency of climatic events related to precipitation added to the high degree of vulnerability of the basin. In this sense, flow forecasts for this region emerge as extremely useful tools in anticipating these events and supporting society to face them. Therefore, to make predictions it is necessary to use hydrological models that are adjusted according to the characteristics of each basin. In this sense, the Large Basin Hydrological Model – MGB was created with the purpose of carrying out hydrological and hydrodynamic modeling for large basins, with a drainage area greater than 1000 km², simulating the hydrological cycle through mathematical equations. In this context, the main objective of this work is to adjust the flow forecast model for the Paraíba do Sul river basin. To achieve this, the MGB-IPH hydrological model was adjusted to the basin and subsequently a calibration of the model was carried out in a so that the simulated flows represent the observed flows in the best possible way. In general, the result was considered satisfactory, however there was greater difficulty in representing the flows for smaller basins, in mountainous regions. Furthermore, there was a slight difficulty in representing the peak flows of the hydrographs, but this is a normal difficulty in hydrological models, due to deficiencies in the data and model structure. Even so, they can be considered a good model fit. After completion of the calibration, numerical predictions from atmospheric models will be used to produce flow forecasts in the basin.