Models for the economies and energy systems of GCC countries

About the workshop The workshop was hosted by KAPSARC in March 2015. It was conducted under the rule of capturing the discussion on a non-attribution basis. Thirty international and local experts participatedSummary for policymakersMembers of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) play a key role in the global energy system. Collectively, in 2014 the six countries supplied the global market with over 28 million barrels of oil equivalent per day of oil and natural gas. They also hold approximately 30% of global proven oil reserves, according to the 2014 BP Statistical Review. The oil and natural gas sector dominates local economic activity, constituting 44% of the region’s gross domestic product and 82% of government revenues in 2013. Beyond the upstream sector, a substantial share of the non-oil exports are still derived from crude oil and natural gas; the region is a large exporter of refined products and petrochemicals. Additionally, public government expenditure has been the main driver of infrastructure and services development in recent years. Thus, the activity of oil and gas production permeates almost the entire economy. The high dependence on hydrocarbon export revenues has placed economic diversification among the key issues for local policymakers.Also, the region has experienced significant economic growth throughout most of the last decade, driven by the rise in oil prices. High oil revenues have allowed for an increase in public investment, and for local governments to bear the costs of providing inexpensive fuel and electricity to consumers. For the most part, households and local industries enjoy a set of administered energy prices that are well below global market values. These prices, which are intended to catalyze industrialization and achieve social objectives, have economy-wide ramifications. Economic growth and low energy prices have contributed to a rapid increase in domestic energy use. Some of the solutions proposed by policymakers to curb regional oil and gas consumption have included the adoption of alternative power generation technologies and enforcing higher efficiency standards. In recent years, models have been built for individual countries within the GCC to assess how sectors in an economy interact by characterizing the operational and investment decisions in the energy system. These models are diverse in methodology and the resolution at which the economy is represented; some take a partial view of the economy while others find an economy-wide general equilibrium. Although the members of the GCC share the challenges and opportunities of hydrocarbon-driven economies and face similar development issues, no model has been built for the aggregate GCC energy economy. Initiatives that propose a shared energy infrastructure (regional gas and electricity grids) may not have been able to assess the costs and benefits at the level of the aggregate economy of the region. However integrated, shared infrastructure requires at least three layers of foundation to succeed: - Common definitions and transparent sharing of data - Consistent and, ideally, integrated models of the member country energy economies - Consistent and harmonized regulatory regimes that do not create exploitable arbitrages KAPSARC’s research is seeking to drive the first pre-requisite by building models of the energy economies of the GCC members in partnership with local think tanks and research institutions. Calibration of these models will expose differences in data definitions and availability that can be harmonized before proposing policies that optimize the benefits of shared infrastructure.

关于研讨会
本研讨会由KAPSARC于2015年3月举办。会议遵循非归因原则，对讨论内容进行记录。三十名国际及本地专家参与了本次研讨会。
政策制定者摘要
海湾合作委员会（GCC）的成员国在全球能源体系中扮演着至关重要的角色。2014年，这六个国家合计向全球市场供应了超过2800万桶油当量的石油和天然气，占全球已探明石油储备的大约30%，根据2014年BP统计评论。石油和天然气行业主导了本地区的经济活动，2013年占地区国内生产总值的44%和政府收入的82%。在上游行业之外，相当一部分非石油出口仍然来源于原油和天然气；本地区是精炼产品和石化产品的大规模出口国。此外，近年来，公共政府支出一直是基础设施和服务发展的主要驱动力。因此，石油和天然气生产的活动几乎渗透了整个经济体系。对碳氢化合物出口收入的高度依赖，使得经济多元化成为当地政策制定者面临的关键问题。此外，本地区在过去十年的大部分时间里经历了显著的经济增长，这得益于石油价格的上涨。高额的石油收入使得公共投资增加，并使地方政府能够承担向消费者提供廉价燃料和电力的成本。在大多数情况下，家庭和当地工业享受的能源价格行政管制体系远低于全球市场价值。这些旨在促进工业化和实现社会目标的能源价格，对整个经济产生了深远的影响。经济增长和低能源价格导致了国内能源使用的快速增长。政策制定者提出的减少区域石油和天然气消费的一些解决方案包括采用替代发电技术和实施更高的能效标准。
近年来，已经为GCC内部各成员国建立了模型，以评估经济中各个部门之间的相互作用，这些模型通过描述能源系统的运营和投资决策来表征。这些模型在方法论和代表经济的方式上各不相同；有些模型只对经济的一部分进行局部观察，而有些模型则实现了经济整体的均衡观察。
尽管GCC成员国面临着由碳氢化合物驱动的经济体的挑战和机遇，并面临相似的发展问题，但仍未建立针对GCC整体能源经济的模型。提出共享能源基础设施（区域天然气和电力网络）的倡议可能尚未能够评估区域整体经济层面的成本和收益。然而，无论多么一体化，共享基础设施的成功至少需要三个层面的基础：
- 公共定义和透明共享数据
- 成员国能源经济的统一且理想情况下整合的模型
- 统一且协调一致的监管制度，不应产生可利用的套利机会
KAPSARC的研究旨在通过与本地智库和研究机构合作，建立GCC成员国的能源经济模型，以此推动第一项先决条件。这些模型的校准将揭示数据定义和可用性方面的差异，这些差异可以在提出优化共享基础设施收益的政策之前得到协调。