Data from: Predicting the impacts of climate change on Papio baboon biogeography: are widespread, generalist primates ‘safe’?

Aims: To explore whether wide-ranging, generalist primates like baboons
can be presumed ‘resilient’ in the face of climate change. We identify
environmental variables influencing baboons’ current distributions and
predict their future potential distributions under different climate
change scenarios. Location: Africa and Arabia. Taxon: Baboons, Papio spp.
Methods: We used localities for olive, yellow, Guinea, hamadryas, chacma
and Kinda baboons together with high-resolution data on bioclimatic
variables, altitude and vegetation to construct species distribution
models (SDMs). These SDMs were run under current and future conditions,
with future models based on three General Circulation Models (MIROC-ESM,
CCSM4 and HadGEM2-ES) under two Representative Concentration Pathways
(RCP2.5 and 6.0) for 2050 and 2070 to explore a range of different
possible futures. Results: All SDMs produced AUC values >0.916
suggesting excellent overall performance. Altitude was the most important
variable influencing Guinea baboon distributions (contributing 41.6%),
temperature seasonality for olive and yellow baboons (47.5% and 35.4%
respectively), precipitation of the driest month for hamadryas baboons
(24.4%), annual mean precipitation for the Kinda baboon (45.1%) and mean
temperature of the driest quarter for chacma baboons (41.4%). Chacma and
Kinda baboons are predicted to suffer substantial habitat loss, and Guinea
baboons may do the same if conditions aridify as climates warm. In
contrast, all models for the olive and hamadryas baboons predicted an
increase in suitable habitat and only smaller changes were predicted for
the yellow baboon. Main conclusions: Two or three of six baboon taxa are
at risk of significant habitat loss as climates warm despite their
apparent ecological flexibility. The chacma and Kinda baboons (both IUCN
listed as Least Concern) will be worst affected, followed by the Guinea
baboon (Near Threatened) if warming brings aridification. We recommend
more focus on biogeographic tools as a means of exploring vulnerabilities
in seemingly resilient species.