Mixture Cure Survival Analysis Model for Cardiovascular Disease in Sulaimani, Iraq

Cardiovascular disease(CVDs) is one of the leading causes of death world- wide. Iraq ranks 20th in the age adjusted Death Rate due to CDVs. In recent years, the treatment of many diseases, especially heart disease, has significantly improved, so the number of patients who do not experience the desired outcome, including death, has increased. In statistical analysis of this type of diseases, cure models are used instead of the usual survival models. In this paper, a sample include 919 patients referred to Sulaimani Hospital with heart disease (including 365 female and 554 male) were followed up for a maximum of 650 days, during the years 2020 to 2022. Of these, 162 people, or 17.6%, have died. Since the Maller-Zhou test was significant (P ‹ 0.01) and considering the cured fraction in this population, the mixture cure model with some statistical distributions was fitted to the data. Based on the results and comparing AIC and BIC, it was observed that the healed model combined with Weibull distribution for survival time and Poisson distribution for the number of deaths with the AIC=1972.54 , BIC=2092.985 was the best model.