Reproducible LSOG mapping for Maine: design-based estimation, an FIA-anchored 10 m product, and an apples-to-apples comparison with the Hagan et al. (2026) LiDAR map

This version extends the prior deposit with a reproducible, FIA-anchored late-successional and old-growth (LSOG) mapping workflow for Maine and a fully like-for-like comparison with the published LiDAR classification of Hagan et al. (2026, Ecosphere). Contents. (1) Design-based FIA estimates of older-forest area with confidence intervals and the multi-axis structural classification. (2) An open, FIA-anchored 10 m LSOG probability product over the study area built from learned satellite embeddings (TESSERA), with a full-AOI mosaic, a Big Reed/Baxter showcase, and a resolution sweep (10-200 m) documenting the dependence of the estimate on map grain. (3) A faithful reproduction of the published LiDAR map from its own public archived inputs (random forest on the 463 training hectares applied to the public hectare-level LiDAR canopy statistics), reproducing the reported any-LSOG extent within ~2 percentage points (22.0% vs 19.7%). (4) An apples-to-apples comparison: at matched landscape prevalence the reproduced LiDAR map and the FIA-anchored embedding map agree on location only weakly (Cohen's kappa ~0.19), with a Seven Islands/Pingree comparison against the authors' own map at kappa 0.24. (5) A remote-sensing feature-fusion benchmark (TESSERA, AlphaEarth, Landsat/Potapov canopy height, Meta canopy height) and the documented-old-growth validation layer compiled from the 1983 and 1986 Maine Critical Areas Program inventories. Note. FIA plot coordinates are restricted and are not included; only derived rasters, aggregate tables, and code are released. v3.0.0 adds the completed full-study-area 10 m LSOG probability map (LSOG_probability_10m_fullstudyarea.tif; 29,083 x 29,162 px, ~848 million 10 m cells, EPSG:32619), the wall-to-wall fused TESSERA product over the entire Hagan study footprint, plus the refreshed technical report and briefing deck. v3.0.1 applies minor corrections from a final stress test of the technical report (a stale AUC value reconciled to the fusion benchmark, an any-LSOG class label, a citation-year consistency fix, and an AUC-range wording fix). Data products are unchanged. v3.0.1 applies minor corrections from a final stress test of the technical report (a stale AUC value reconciled to the fusion benchmark, an any-LSOG class label, a citation-year consistency fix, and an AUC-range wording fix). Data products are unchanged. v3.0.1 applies minor corrections from a final stress test of the technical report (a stale AUC value reconciled to the fusion benchmark, an any-LSOG class label, a citation-year consistency fix, and an AUC-range wording fix). Data products are unchanged. v3.0.1 applies minor corrections from a final stress test of the technical report (a stale AUC value reconciled to the fusion benchmark, an any-LSOG class label, a citation-year consistency fix, and an AUC-range wording fix). Data products are unchanged. v3.0.5 applies two source-fidelity refinements after a line-by-line re-review against Hagan et al. (2026). The reproduced classifier's any-LSOG figure (21.9%) is labelled as a fraction of forested hectares on the common comparison grid, alongside the published map's own any-LSOG of 19.7% of the full study area; and the manuscript describes mapped LSOG as 'lost' rather than 'harvested' to match the Global Forest Watch loss terminology. Data products are unchanged. v3.0.6 finalizes the technical report: confidence reported as High/Medium/Low with a defining legend, softened absolute language, an independent general-assessment framing (not prepared for any single organization) with a date, professional layout (centered table cells, justified body text, tables and captions kept together), and revised figures (Fig 5 with block-bootstrap 95% CIs; Fig 6 a two-panel comparison of our estimate with the reproduced Hagan model; Fig 7 expanded with a remote-sensing attribute-contribution panel; Fig 8 a forest-masked two-panel showing the reproduced Hagan map beside our 10 m map with county, Baxter, and Big Reed reference). Data products are unchanged. v3.0.7 adds final report refinements: green/amber/red shading of the High/Medium/Low confidence cells; a definition of the v5.1 structural classifier; a new Conclusions section with specific research, policy, and conservation suggestions; Figure 1 clipped to the Maine land area so the GEDI panel no longer extends beyond the state; and Figure 8 forest-masked with the FIA nearest-neighbor forest/non-forest mask (Wilson et al. 2012). Data products are unchanged. v3.0.8 adds the forest-masked wall-to-wall 10 m LSOG probability raster (LSOG_probability_10m_forestmasked.tif): the full 10 m surface with non-forest and open water set to no-data using the FIA nearest-neighbor forest/non-forest mask (Wilson et al. 2012, 2009 vintage; 473.4 of 848.1 million cells retained as forest). The full unmasked surface (LSOG_probability_10m_fullstudyarea.tif) is retained. Report Figure 8 caption updated accordingly. v3.0.9 revises the technical report: an expanded Background placing the work in the national (CONUS) context of mature and old-growth mapping (federal executive order and inventory, Pelz et al. 2023 criteria, GEDI/Potapov canopy height, continental old-growth products), with the framing that independent methods can be learned from collectively; the original study is referred to by its publication rather than by author name throughout the text and figures; recommendations are grouped by category and ranked High/Medium/Low (with color shading); and a cleaner professional layout (flowing sections with ruled headings, reduced blank space). Data products are unchanged. v3.1.0 polishes the report layout and structure: a page-numbered Contents with dot leaders; a page break so the Executive Summary stands alone before Background; Section 5 retitled and rebalanced to weight policy implications equally with economic ones; the Recommendations table redrawn with merged category bands (no repeating category column) and High/Medium/Low priority shading; the Appendix moved to the end after References; and minor wording refinements. Data products are unchanged. v3.1.1 adds a data-driven classification-threshold analysis (new Figure 9) computed in R (ranger out-of-bag probabilities on 4,168 true-coordinate plots): panel (a) shows the sensitivity/specificity/precision/F1 trade-off with the Youden-optimal threshold at 0.36 (bootstrap 95% CI 0.29-0.37; max-F1 0.37, 0.36-0.44); panel (b) shows precision collapsing with base rate at fixed model skill (AUC 0.87), from about 51% on the training set to about 11% at the 3% four-axis prevalence and under 1% for the 0.2% old-growth class, illustrating the central difficulty of mapping a rare condition. Data products are unchanged. v3.1.2 renames the report file to CRSF_LSOG_Technical_Report (from MFPC_*); adds a limitations-table row noting the published map's single hard class from a default majority-vote threshold with no cutpoint chosen for the rare old-growth class (tied to Figure 9); and a layout pass that lets figures flow to fill pages, removing odd partial-page gaps while keeping captions intact. Data products are unchanged. v3.1.3 updates and renames the briefing deck (MFPC_LSOG_Briefing -> CRSF_LSOG_Briefing) to align with the report: de-named to the publication, general (non-MFPC) framing, national/CONUS context, the updated and forest-masked figures (Maine-clipped four-map comparison, two-panel Sobol plus attribute-contribution ladder, ours-vs-published plot maps, the forest-masked 10 m map, and the rare-class threshold figure), the default-vote limitation row, and recommendations tagged by High/Medium priority. Data products are unchanged. v3.1.4 restructures the briefing deck into a 12-slide main narrative (title, why, five findings, how much with intervals, the count depends on definition, maps disagree, the fused 10 m map, the rare-class classification challenge, stock stable-to-rising, conservation context, recommendations, and a closing slide) followed by a 'Supplemental material' divider and the detailed limitation-by-limitation and methods slides. Content unchanged from v3.1.3; reorganized for a briefing audience. v3.1.5 adds a PDF rendering of the briefing deck (CRSF_LSOG_Briefing.pdf) alongside the editable PowerPoint. No content change. v3.2.0 revises the Comment (Ecosphere_Comment_Hagan_FINAL.docx) and the Northeast manuscript (Northeast_LSOG_Manuscript_V2.docx) following coauthor review: the national mature and old-growth mapping context (U.S. Executive Order 14072, 2022) now leads, the four structural thresholds are specified as conservative lower benchmarks, the disturbance-vulnerability framing is removed, references (DellaSala et al. 2022; Barnett et al. 2023; Gray et al. 2023) are added and CrossRef-verified, and all numbers are reconciled with the CRSF technical report. PDF renderings of both documents are added. No change to the data, code, or rasters. v3.3.0 incorporates a coauthor suggestion to cite the national-scale Forest Inventory Growth Stage System (Woodall et al. 2023, Forest Ecology and Management 546:121361) as precedent for the multidimensional, multi-axis treatment of mature and old-growth forest and its definitional sensitivity, in both the Comment and the manuscript. Adds standalone Supporting Information documents for each: the manuscript SI (Tables S1-S10) and the Comment SI (classifier reproduction, rare-class rebalancing menu, and matched-prevalence cross-map test). No change to the data, code, or rasters. v3.3.1 corrects the citation of the Forest Inventory Growth Stage System in the Comment and manuscript to the verifiable federal estimate (about 45 percent mature and 18 percent old-growth of Forest Service and BLM forest; Woodall et al. 2023, Forest Ecology and Management 546:121361; USDA Forest Service and USDI Bureau of Land Management 2023), with the threshold sensitivity stated qualitatively, replacing an earlier unverified sensitivity range. No change to data, code, rasters, or supporting information. v3.3.2 adds the Burrascano et al. 2013 global review of the structural attributes of moist temperate old-growth forests (Forest Ecology and Management 291:458-479) to the Comment and manuscript, supporting large-tree basal area and density as the live-structure axis, following coauthor feedback. No change to data, code, rasters, or supporting information. v3.0.0 adds the completed full-study-area 10 m LSOG probability map (LSOG_probability_10m_fullstudyarea.tif; 29,083 x 29,162 px, ~848 million 10 m cells, EPSG:32619), the wall-to-wall fused TESSERA product over the entire Hagan study footprint, plus the refreshed technical report and briefing deck. v3.4.0 (corrects the version label of the prior entry, which was inadvertently tagged 3.0.0): consolidated release carrying the full-study-area 10 m LSOG probability map plus the statewide forest-masked 10 m surface, the refreshed technical report, briefing deck, manuscript, and Comment.