Pre-registration for "Why does the Mass Public Not Believe in Free Trade?"

The argument from Economics that free trade has net welfare benefits for the national economy typically builds upon three related propositions. First, it acknowledges that opening the national market hurts some domestic producers, namely those who are unable to compete with lower cost foreign producers. But second, it proposes that free trade is good for all domestic consumers because it lowers the price that they must pay for a variety of goods and services. Indeed, the supposed surplus gain for consumers from an open market is so large that it more than offsets the expected surplus loss for producers, which means that the winners from free trade could be taxed to fully compensate the losers and they would remain winners (albeit less so). And third, there would also be some winners from free trade among domestic producers if other governments reciprocate by opening their markets, thus allowing exporting firms to reach more foreign consumers. This project considers why so many citizens favor trade protection despite the Economics case for free trade outlined above. We argue that in a macroeconomic environment of stable prices, characterizing most advanced industrial democracies over the past two decades, many citizens discount or may not even be aware of the consumer price benefits associated with an open market, which stand as the primary benefit associated with open trade. Our survey experiment, as a part of this project, will explore what information might make citizens more supportive of free trade.