Using ABC and microsatellite data to detect multiple introductions of invasive species from a single source

The introduction of invasive species to new locations (that is, biological invasions) can have major impact on biodiversity, agriculture and public health. As such, determining the routes and modality of introductions with genetic data has become a fundamental goal in molecular ecology. To assist with this goal, new statistical methods and frameworks have been developed, such as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) for inferring invasion history. Here, we present a model of invasion accounting for multiple introductions from a single source (MISS), a heretofore largely unexplored model. We simulate microsatellite data to evaluate the power of ABC to distinguish between single and multiple introductions from the same source, under a range of demographic parameters. We also apply ABC to microsatellite data from three invasions of bumblebee in New Zealand. In addition, we assess the performance of several methods of summary statistics selection. Our simulated results suggested good abili...