Season-Average Price Forecasts

This data product provides three Excel file spreadsheet models that use futures prices to forecast the U.S. season-average price received and the implied CCP for three major field crops (corn, soybeans, and wheat).

#### Using Futures Prices to Forecast the Season-Average Price and Counter-Cyclical Payment Rate for Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat

Farmers and policymakers are interested in the level of counter-cyclical payments (CCPs) provided by the 2008 Farm Act to producers of selected commodities. CCPs are based on the season-average price received by farmers. (For more information on CCPs, see the ERS 2008 Farm Bill Side-By-Side, Title I: Commodity Programs.)

This data product provides three Excel spreadsheet models that use futures prices to forecast the U.S. season-average price received and the implied CCP for three major field crops (corn, soybeans, and wheat). Users can view the model forecasts or create their own forecast by inserting different values for futures prices, basis values, or marketing weights. Example computations and data are provided on the Documentation page.

#### Spreadsheet Models

For each of the three major U.S. field crops, the Excel spreadsheet model computes a forecast for:

1. the national-level season-average price received by farmers and
2. the implied counter-cyclical payment rate.

Note: the model forecasts are not official USDA forecasts. See USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for official USDA season-average price forecasts. See USDA's Farm Service Agency information for official USDA CCP rates.This record was taken from the USDA Enterprise Data Inventory that feeds into the https://data.gov catalog. Data for this record includes the following resources: Webpage with links to Excel files For complete information, please visit https://data.gov.

本数据产品提供三个Excel电子表格模型，这些模型利用期货价格预测美国三大主要粮食作物（玉米、大豆和小麦）的季节平均价格及隐含的反周期支付率。农民和政策制定者对2008年农业法案中针对选定商品生产者的反周期支付（CCP）水平感兴趣。CCP基于农民收到的季节平均价格。（有关CCP的更多信息，请参阅ERS 2008年农业法案对比表，第一部分：商品项目。）

本数据产品提供了三个Excel电子表格模型，用户可以查看模型预测或通过输入不同的期货价格、基差值或营销权重来创建自己的预测。示例计算和数据可在文档页面查看。

#### 电子表格模型

对于美国三大主要粮食作物中的每一项，Excel电子表格模型都会计算以下预测：
1. 农民获得的全国性季节平均价格，
2. 隐含的反周期支付率。

注意：模型预测并非官方USDA预测。有关官方USDA季节平均价格预测，请参阅USDA的世界农业供需估计。有关官方USDA CCP比率，请参阅USDA的农场服务局信息。本记录来源于USDA企业数据目录，该目录输入至https://data.gov目录。本记录的数据包括以下资源：包含Excel文件链接的网页。欲获取完整信息，请访问https://data.gov。