Predictor variables and model AIC values for the probability that a Magellanic penguin chick died in a storm at Punta Tombo, Argentina, 1983–2010.

Multiple logistic regression was used, grouping on nest, with robust standard errors on 2482 chicks in 590 nests with 233 storms. a = chick age (days) on date of storm (chicks that did not die in a storm were randomly assigned to a storm), a2 = age squared, r = rain, l = low temperature, * indicates interaction terms, k = number of parameters, AIC = Akaike’s Information Criterion, ΔAIC = the difference between AIC and the lowest AIC, LL = model log-likelihood, AIC weight = the probability that the model is the best model given the data and the set of candidate models. Pseudo R2 of the best model was 0.57.