Risk stratification for prediction of spread and severity by Covid-19 in Brazilian federation units

Abstract Objectives: To perform risk stratification for dissemination and mortality by COVID-19 from Brazilian federal units (FU), based on characteristics identified as risk situations. Methods: Social, demographic and health indicators were selected and underwent principal components analysis. Then, it was possible to divide the FUs by cluster analysis. Based on the factor load of the components created, a final score for the UF was obtained and they were then stratified with regard to the risk of dissemination and mortality by COVID-19. Findings: Components created refer to assistance, health (including risk factors), demographic and social conditions. These components allowed for the final classification of the 27 FU, with a difference in order with regard to the potential for dissemination and mortality. Conclusions: We believe risk stratification may be a measure to support public health, defining areas with the greatest potential for damage and on that basis, allow for the creation of priority intervention strategies.