Replication data for: Voter Response to Peak and End Transfers: Evidence from a Conditional Cash Transfer Experiment

In a Honduran field experiment, sequences of cash transfers to poor households varied in amount of the largest (peak) and last (end) transfers. Larger peak-end transfers increased voter turnout and the incumbent party's vote share in the 2013 presidential election, independently of cumulative transfers. A plausible explanation is that voters succumbed to a common cognitive bias by applying peak-end heuristics. Another is that voters deliberately used peak-end transfers to update beliefs about the incumbent party. In either case, the results provide experimental evidence on the classic non-experimental finding that voters are especially sensitive to recent economic activity.本研究开展了一项洪都拉斯田野实验，针对贫困家庭的现金转移支付序列在单次最高额度转移支付（峰值，peak）与最后一次转移支付（终值，end）的金额上存在差异。研究发现，更高的峰值与终值转移支付额度提升了2013年总统选举的选民投票率与执政党得票率，且该效应独立于转移支付累计总额。一种合理的解释是，选民因运用峰终启发式（peak-end heuristics）而陷入了一种常见的认知偏差；另一种解释则是，选民会刻意利用峰值与终值转移支付来更新自身对执政党的认知判断。无论哪种情形，该研究结果均为一项经典非实验性发现提供了实验证据：选民对近期经济活动尤为敏感。