The mass politics of public debt, immigration, and austerity

Several European governments are confronting both high public debt and ageing populations. Policymakers will confront the unpopular choices of austerity, increasing immigration, or continuing to let debt increase. Because these outcomes are studied in isolation, the relative popularity of these interlinked policy options is still unknown. To gain insight into these trade-offs, we examine how the Italian public responds to alternative paths to debt reduction and test if citizens prefer austerity over immigration or are willing to relax opposition to immigration to avoid the material consequences of austerity in a constrained multidimensional setting. Our first experiment reveals that information about immigration’s fiscal benefits increases support for pro-immigration policies and improves attitudes toward immigrants. Next, using a conjoint design, we show that citizens prefer parties that reduce debt through immigration rather than austerity and that are more willing to accept increased immigration than ignore rising public debt. These findings provide insights into the interaction between fiscal policy, immigration, and austerity amid economic and demographic challenges, suggesting that sociocultural concerns can bend to material interests when voters are confronted with these alternative approaches to fiscal sustainability.