Replication Package: "Tourism intensity and regional demographic resilience: Causal evidence of a non-linear threshold in European regions"

This replication package contains the R estimation code to reproduce all main results, robustness checks, and figures reported in the paper "Tourism intensity and regional demographic resilience: Causal evidence of a non-linear threshold in European regions" (Tourism Economics, SAGE, 2026; manuscript reference TEU-26-0518). The analysis uses a balanced panel of 668 NUTS3 regions across Germany, Spain, France and Italy (2001–2022). All underlying data are drawn from ARDECO (Annual Regional Database of the European Commission's Joint Research Centre) and are publicly available at https://urban.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ardeco. No processed datasets are included; the code and README are sufficient to reconstruct all results from the raw public data. Key findings: a Bartik shift-share instrument (F = 118.7) identifies a positive buffering effect of tourism intensity on net migration responses to industrial employment shocks, with effect reversal beyond a saturation threshold of 17.2 overnight stays per capita (optimal retention point: 11.8). The non-linearity is specific to the demographic channel; regional GVA responds linearly.