DLNCD: A Two-Tier Formal–Informal Governance Network Panel and Replication Pipeline for a Conflict-Affected Oil Corridor (Arauca, Colombia, 1998–2024)

This package provides a hand-coded relational database and a complete analysis pipeline for studying how formal governance and informal armed order co-evolve around conflict-affected energy infrastructure, developed for the Caño Limón–Coveñas oil pipeline corridor in Arauca, Colombia. The core dataset is a two-tier network panel covering 1998–2024: 38 actors (state institutions, state-owned and multinational oil companies, regulators, foreign governments and multilateral bodies, armed organisations at the front level, and social actors) connected by 88 documented tie spans that expand into 1,032 edge-year observations across a formal cooperation layer (contracts, fiscal transfers, security agreements, negotiation channels, regulation) and an informal security layer (extortion, territorial accommodation, social control, operational alliances, cross-border sanctuary). Every tie is registered in an evidence log with a three-grade source hierarchy; the coding manual, double-coding reliability records (Gwet's AC1 = 0.71) and adjudicated disagreements are included. The package also contains derived monthly series for the corridor (field-level production, oil royalties, pipeline-bombing events, a conflict-intensity index) built from Colombian open government data, SEC filings, UCDP GED and public risk indices, together with the full R/Python pipeline: temporal ERGMs and stochastic actor-oriented models, synthetic control with placebo inference, Almon and unconstrained distributed-lag and VAR models, a network-based rupture early-warning system, and a calibrated Monte Carlo defence-strategy simulation. ACLED event data are excluded in line with ACLED's redistribution terms; a fetch script is provided. See README.md for structure, run order and licensing (MIT for code, CC BY 4.0 for author-generated data).