Models/parameterizations included in the ensemble and their behavior.

aIncidence of clinical episodes (episodes per person-year) in the absence of intervention at an EIR of 20 ibpa.bIncidence of mortality (malaria-related deaths per 100,000 person-years) in the absence of intervention at an EIR of 20 ibpa.cProportion of clinical episodes that are averted during the first 10 y of a mass vaccination program.dThese parameters were fixed; in other models the decay parameters were estimated. Decays shorter than the shortest fixed values gave unacceptable fits to the data.s.d., standard deviation.