Predicting the effects of reservoir water level management on the reproductive output of a riparian songbird

Yellow warblers were monitored in Revelstoke, British Columbia, Canada for 12 breeding seasons spanning 2005 to 2017. Data on the breeding biology of individually marked warblers was used to construct an individual-based model describing the effects of reservoir operations on the reproductive output of yellow warblers. This model was parameterised using data on the breeding biology of approximately 30 breeding pairs per year that a provided data on nest sites (ground elevation and nest height), breeding phenology (date of first egg for each clutch initiated), clutch size, brood parasitism by brown-headed cowbirds, nest fate and whether females re-nested following nest failure or success. The raw data was filtered, excluding nests that failed due to abandonment following brood parasitism and flooding, and formatted to allow estimation of nest survival rates using Program MARK.Â