Summary of estimated difference in HIV incidence according to counter-factual scenarios.

*scenario in which no ART was introduced, but sexual risk behaviour change still occurred (this is in order to separate the direct effect of ART on incidence via lower viral load from its effect on increased condomless sex).**scenario in which in 2000 all condom use had ceased but levels of anal sex remained the same. This was done by assuming that levels of sexual risk behaviour increase such that the proportion of men with a condomless sexual partner is set to the reported levels of sex, including condom-protected sex.***scenario in which policy from 2000 was to initiate ART in all people with diagnosed HIV.****scenario in which testing rates were much higher from 2000, such that by 2010 68% of all men were tested each year (49% per 3 months, with targeting of men having condomless sex in the past 6 months) compared with the figure of 25% used in modelling (6% per 3 months).*****scenario with both higher rates of testing and ART initiation at diagnosis.