Data associated with the article Towards annual updating of forced warming to date and constrained climate projections

This dataset is associated with the article Towards annual updating of forced warming to date and constrained climate projections. It contains all the inputs needed to reproduce the constraints (models, observations or pseudo-observations) and the outputs of these constraints needed to reproduce all the figures and results in the article and its supplement.

The following description explains how data are stored in the archive. For further information on the scientific content of the archive, please refer to the Methods section of the article.

Main architecture of the archive

The constraint requires two types of inputs : an ensemble of climate models time series store in input_models, and a time series of observations (used to constrain the ensemble of climate models) stored in input_observations, or input_pseudo-observations in the case of pseudo-observations. The results of the constraint are stored in output_observations if the observations are real observation coming from input_observations, and in output_pseudo-observations if the observations are pseudo-observations coming from input_pseudo-observations.

Each input and output directory contains two directories : global_gsat and local_FRsat. The first one contains time series of global surface atmospheric temperature, and the second one contains time series of surface atmospheric temperature aggregated over mainland France.

Input data

Models : The files are RData and contain one variable called X_fit. This variable has two dimensions : time and model. Each time series is the annual temperature averaged over space and members of each model. These time series are fitted as described in the article.

(Pseudo-)observations : The files are RData and contain one variable called Y. This variable has one dimension (time) and is a time series of annual temperature. Files ending in covar have two time dimensions and are the error covariance matrix.

Output data

The output data are stored in different subfolders depending on which observations are used for the constraint. Within each subfolder, the file names vary depending on which ensemble model is being constrained, the period to which the constraint is being applied, and the reference period used to calculate the temperature anomalies.Each RData file contains one list called global_constrained_output. This list has several entries of time series, including :

prior_anom_mean : ensemble mean of the input model ensemble

prior_anom_var : variance of the input model ensemble (quantification of model dispersion)

prior_anom_max/min : the 95th and 5th percentiles of the normal law with the parameters prior_anom_mean and prior_anom_var.

post_anom_* : same as above but for the constrained ensemble

Y : observations used to constrain.