The remnant natural capital of the Magdalena-Cauca basin. Immense losses for the 80% of Colombian inhabitants

The Magdalena-Cauca basin, which covers 24% of the country's continental territory, and is inhabited by about 80% of the Colombian population, expresses the greatest ecosystems loss, and serious socio-environmental problems. This basin occupies an area of approx. 27 million hectares, located in the country's center. The literature about the economic valuation of ecosystem services (ES) and the spatial information on natural resources in the Magdalena-Cauca basin was revised through various information sources to document the earliest approximation to the state, spatial distribution, and economic value of the natural capital at the scale of biomes, specific ecosystems, and political-administrative units. Our assessment estimated a natural capital loss of 1.5 trillion Int.$2020/year (more than 100% of Colombian GDP in 2020) and a remnant natural capital worth 469 billion Int.$2020/year (more than 100% of Colombia's GDP in 2020) for 15 ecosystem services. This research establishes that a potential expansion in livestock production systems will generate an additional loss of natural capital between 1.0 and 1.1 trillion Int.$2020/year. Additionally, we include an analysis based on the GLOBIO4 initiative models, identifying future natural capital losses between 800 billion and 1.4 trillion Int.$2020/year. Lastly, the policy challenges and gaps in research and management concerning this remaining natural capital in the Magdalena-Cauca basin are pointed out.