Is China a Status Quo or Revisionist State? Leadership Travel as an Empirical Indicator of Foreign Policy Priorities

China's rising power and increased global activism have attracted increasing attention, with particular focus on whether a stronger China is likely to be a revisionist or status quo state. Power transition theory highlights the potential for a dissatisfied rising power to challenge the existing international order, but it is difficult to evaluate whether a rising power is dissatisfied. Where Chinese leaders choose to travel can offer insights into whether China's behavior is more consistent with that of a revisionist or status quo state and into China's broader diplomatic priorities. We present a series of expectations concerning how the travel patterns of a challenger state are likely to differ from the travel patterns of a status quo state. Using a newly compiled data set, we then analyze the correlates of travel abroad by top Chinese leaders from 1998 to 2008. Our results are more consistent with a status quo conceptualization of China, though there are some important exceptions such as willingness to travel to rogue states. We also use travel data to test other hypotheses about Chinese foreign policy behavior.

中国日益崛起的实力与愈发活跃的全球行动已然引发持续广泛的关注，其中核心议题聚焦于：愈发强盛的中国究竟会成为修正主义国家（revisionist state）还是现状国家（status quo state）。权力转移理论（Power transition theory）指出，心怀不满的崛起大国存在挑战现有国际秩序的潜在可能，但评估崛起大国是否心怀不满却颇具难度。中国领导人的出访选择，能够为判断中国行为更贴合修正主义国家还是现状国家，以及洞悉中国更宏观的外交优先事项，提供关键视角。本文提出一系列理论预期，用以阐释挑战者国家与现状国家的出访模式可能存在的差异。随后，本文依托全新汇编的数据集，对1998年至2008年间中国最高领导人的境外出访关联因素展开实证分析。尽管存在若干重要例外情形（例如中国领导人愿意出访流氓国家（rogue states）），但本研究结果更契合将中国视为现状国家的理论建构。此外，本文还借助出访数据，对有关中国外交政策行为的其他假说进行了实证检验。

搜集汇总

背景与挑战

背景概述

该数据集通过分析1998年至2008年中国高层领导人的出访模式，探讨中国是现状国家还是修正主义国家的问题。研究发现，中国行为更符合现状国家的特征，但存在访问流氓国家等例外情况，数据可用于测试中国外交政策的相关假设。