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Interpreting Tests of Forward Discount Bias Using Survey Data on Exchange Rate Expectations

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NBER1986-06-01 更新2025-01-04 收录
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https://www.nber.org/papers/w1963
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Survey data on exchange rate expectations are used to divide the forward discount into expected depreciation and a risk premium. Our starting point is the common test oh whether the forward discount is an unbiased predictor of future changes in the spot rate. We use the surveys to decompose the bias
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1986-06-01
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